CFB -- Lessons to Take into 2010

Winter is continuing to pound away at many parts of the country as we welcome February, but with all-star games being played and the hint of spring practice starting to whisper its promise of optimism on the wind, let’s take a look back.

 

It’s never too late to learn something from 2009 that will benefit fantasy owners in 2010.

 

As always, there are vagaries that can’t be seen right now, but we’ll leave that to the fates and try to divine something useful from the 2009 season. The beauty is, of course, that each season, despite many fantasy contributors coming back, remains at the mercy of the player’s opportunities within an offense that may suffer subtle changes through some changing personnel, or major changes due to wholesale coaching moves.

 

What was born in 2009 may not grow as we’d all like in 2010. That’s the risk we all take in this crazy game and it’s what makes it great.

 

That being said, however, we’ll take a stab at eyeballing the 2010 season through the lens of 2009 performances.

 

So, what did we learn in 2009?

 

We learned that in the college game, dual-threat quarterbacks can rock your stat line. Sure, the big guy standing in the pocked can be a huge advantage, particularly if his name is Case Keenum (so glad you’re coming back, Case), but the real equalizer in the college fantasy game is the quarterback who can run it or pass it with equal effectiveness.

 

Case in point: in all four of the leagues I played in, each with a slightly different format, the dual-threat quarterbacks held six of the next seven spots after Keenum (the runaway stat point winner in each format). So, after Keenum’s aerial circus, the quarterbacks who stood out from a fantasy points earned perspective were: Joe Webb (UAB), Colin Kaepernick (Nevada), Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan), Jerrod Johnson (Texas A&M), Dwight Dasher (Middle Tennessee), Kellen Moore (Boise State) and Tim Tebow (Florida).  The only pure passer in that list is Moore. Even Johnson rushed for more than 400 yards and eight scores (36 touchdowns total).

 

The point is this, in the pro fantasy games you’re at the mercy of the passing portion of the game. In the college game, there are more ways for a quarterback to contribute to your point total and that broadens the paths you can take in selecting a quarterback. Of this group, Kaepernick, Johnson, Dasher and Moore (along with Keenum) return in 2010.

 

I’m not saying you can’t love Ryan Mallett or Russell Wilson or whatever gunslinger you favor, I’m saying that it’s nice to have a guy who can do it with his arm or his legs. In the college game, you can have your cake and eat it, too.

Three dual threat quarterbacks to keep in your hip pocket for 2010 -- Jake Locker (Washington), Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), Ricky Dobbs (Navy).

 

We learned that the Pac-10, long touted the conference of quarterbacks, is primed to be a running back haven for the next few years … possibly.

Few would have ever thought that Stanford running back Toby Gerhart would rush for 1,800 yards and make a serious run at the Heisman, but that’s what happened (though you’ll recall I was touting him in the summer for a huge year). And he wasn’t alone in the Pac-10 by any means and 2010 could be even better.

 

Oregon’s Jacquizz Rodgers and Oregon’s LaMichael James will lead a conference that has become one to watch for fantasy-worthy running backs. Both should continue to run and catch the ball, the dream of all fantasy owners. Both figure to be key ingredients in each program’s offense -- again.

 

But I’m going to give you a couple more names to keep up your sleeve in 2010. Here are some sneaky-good prospects in the Pac-10:

Chris Polk (Washington) -- Polk actually rushed for 1,100 yards for the Huskies in year one of the Steve Sarkisian era -- not bad for a freshman. Polk will benefit from the experience and the return of quarterback Jake Locker and I’d be shocked if he didn’t nearly double his total of five touchdowns in 2010.

Shane Vereen (California) -- Even though he played second fiddle to Jahvid Best for most of the season, Vereen rushed for nearly 1,000 yards and scored 12 times on the ground. After Best was hurt, Vereen rattled off four straight 100-yard games and scored six times in that span. This guy is the real deal and there are whispers that he’s better than Best right now -- and you remember how highly ranked Best was in fantasy circles when 2009 dawned. I’m just saying.

Nic Grigsby (Arizona) -- Yes, he can’t seem to stay healthy, but when he does, he’s the truth, baby. Grigsby had only 79 carries, but tallied more than 500 yards and five scores in limited work. Yes, he’ll have to battle Keola Antolin for carries again, but it seems that whenever Grigsby is healthy, he’s the guy. After so much physical struggle, he’s due for a healthy year.

 

Others who could have an impact: Johnathan Franklin (UCLA) -- An up-and-down freshman season, but one to watch. Allan Bradford (USC) -- C.J. Gable may be coming back, but my money’s on this guy taking the lion’s share of carries.

 

We learned that often the best fantasy receivers are veteran receivers. When looking down the list of the top fantasy receivers, one thing jumps out at me -- how many of them are headed to the NFL this season and how many are upperclassmen.

 

Let’s see, Freddie Barnes, Golden Tate, Danario Alexander, Dexter McCluster, Dezmon Briscoe, Jordan Shipley and Antonio Brown. Seven of the top wide receivers in the league formats I played in are graduated or off to the NFL a season early.

 

The only underclassmen to sneak into that mix was Hawaii’s Greg Salas who had 103 catches, 1,500 yards and double-digit scores for the Warriors. Other guys in the top spots are Emmanuel Sanders,  Ryan Broyles and Kerry Meiers -- all gone for 2010.

 

It would seem that some seasoning is a nice thing for wide receivers to have, not to mention a serviceable quarterback throwing the ball. When you look at the names on this list, you see most of them had quarterbacks who were, at the very least, decent -- many had very good quarterbacks with whom they’d built a decent relationship over some length of time.

 

With all but Salas gone in the top 12, who might be the big guns in 2010? Look for Randall Cobb (Kentucky), Eric Page (Toledo), Austin Pettis and Titus Young (Boise State), James Cleveland (Houston) and James Rodgers (Oregon State).

 

Pettis and Young always bother me because Kellen Moore will throw to the towel boy if he’s open. I’m sure the blue turf crowd loves that Moore is an equal opportunity passer, targeting just about anyone with a touchdown throw, but for fantasy purposes it would be great if he really zeroed in on these guys more this season.

Cleveland was a fantastic story in 2009 and with Keenum back, it’s easy to see him being a top-5 fantasy wide receiver come draft day.

 

We learned that there are a lot of good freshmen running backs around. Pittsburgh’s Dion Lewis, Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams, Oregon’s LaMichael James, Temple’s Bernard Pierce, Washington’s Chris Polk, Iowa’s Adam Robinson, Texas A&M’s Michael Christine, Indiana’s Darius Willis and Vanderbilt’s Warren Norman.

 

The question is which of these guys will improve their second year, hold onto their job or avoid injury? And which will take a big step forward in 2010?

 

Tech’s Williams will have a battle on his hands with Donald Evans and some other talented backs on the scene -- he’s my candidate to have the biggest letdown in 2010. I also question whether Temple can bring enough offense outside of Pierce to keep defenses honest in 2010. He’s my other candidate to have a sophomore slump.

 

I’ve already lauded Polk as a guy who is in position to have a big season at Washington and I like Robinson at Iowa and Willis at Indiana to take that next step toward fantasy contributions on a weekly basis.

 

We learned that one similarity with the pro fantasy game is that tight ends that contribute usable numbers weekly are golden -- and just as rare as gold.

In my leagues, the same three names were at the top of the tight end heap -- Dennis Morris (La. Tech), Dennis Pitta (BYU) and Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh). After those three, there was at the very least, a 25-point gap to the next group of tight ends -- Garrett Graham (Wisconsin), Ed Dickson (Oregon), Jason Harmon (Florida Atlantic), Aaron Hernandez (Florida) and Cody Slate (Marshall) -- and after that it fell off quickly and precipitously.

 

Here’s my point and it was hammered home in 2009 -- a quality tight end for college fantasy play is a tremendous advantage for you to have. If you’re willing to snag one early in the draft and ignore the wisecracks of your opponents, you may have snagged a head start to winning it all.

 

In three of my four drafts, I took Pitta in the third or fourth round each time, depending on which I was in the snake. In my fourth, I took Dickson in the fifth round. And seriously, someone made a comment each time about it being too early for a tight end. The thing about tight ends is can they come close to some level of consistency week to week. In my league formats, Morris, Pitta and Dickerson were the only tight ends to score in double figures five times during the season and each had at least one more game with eight or more points.

 

When your best tight ends average 8.0 to 9.0 points a game in a basic fantasy format, you better make sure you find a guy early who’s going to take you over that amount regularly and have the ability to get you a couple big games along the way -- because tight ends will usually offer up an O-fer or two along the way.

 

As an example, Morris had high point games of 20 and 31 points; Pitta 20 and 23 points; Dickerson 25 and a pair of 17-pointers.

 

Additionally, the concept of veterans at the position seems to be even more important than at wide receiver. Morris, Pitta, Dickerson, Graham, Dickson, Harmon, Hernandez and Slate are all seniors or have entered the NFL draft -- as are Jesse Rack (Buffalo) and Michael Palmer (Clemson). It’s not until we get down to North Carolina State’s George Bryan and all 65 of his points that we have a guy who’s slated to come back.

 

Given that seeming lack of tight end firepower coming back, here are three guys to take a long look at in 2010 and hope they catch fire and become fantasy difference-makers for you: Bryan (NC State), Jeffrey Anderson (UAB), Joe Halahuni (Oregon State).

 

John Baker is the senior college football writer for World Fantasy Games.

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