MLB -- 2010 First Base Duds

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MLB -- 2010 First Base Duds



In this week’s column, I’m taking a look at some potentially overvalued first baseman. Whether it is advanced age, injury concerns or other potential issues, be wary of adding these guys to your fantasy team on draft day.


1. Carlos Delgado, Free Agent


Delgado was limited to just 26 games last season with the New York Mets due to a right hip injury that required surgery and also pulling an oblique muscle during rehab. He hit .298 with four home runs and 23 RBI in 94 at bats along with a .393 on-base percentage and a .521 slugging percentage. In his last healthy season in 2008, he hit .271 with 38 HR and 115 RBI with a .353 on-base percentage and a .518 slugging percentage in 598 at-bats.


Delgado has yet to be signed for the 2010 season, but has been playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League. Reports have suggested that the Mets and Baltimore Orioles have scouted him in Puerto Rico recently. Some recent rumors, which have been discredited, had Delgado returning to the Toronto Blue Jays, his first major league team.


Delgado will turn 38 in June, so signing with an American League team where he can be used as a DH would seem to be the right fit for him. In any case he should be able to find a home in the major leagues by the time Spring Training starts, so any concerns about that are likely unfounded.


If he is able to stay healthy and get around 400 at-bats this season, Delgado could hit 20-25 home runs and drive in 70-80 depending on where he lands and the talent level around him.


Still, Delgado presents an incredible risk for fantasy owners heading into 2010, due to health and age concerns at minimum. Add that to the likelihood he will only help in two categories (HR and RBI) even if he is able to stay healthy and he offers little upside. He is probably a risk not worth taking on draft day.


2. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs


Lee hit .306 with 35 HR and 111 RBI in 532 at bats last season. He also had a .579 slugging percentage and a .393 on-base percentage in what was his best season since 2005. But he did miss time with neck and foot issues last season and is not getting any younger as he will turn 34 in early September. He has also battled back issues in recent years.


Lee’s 2009 home run total was likely driven by a 46 percent fly ball rate, which was a notable increase over the 34% from 2008 and even the 39% from his huge 2005 season (46 HR, 107 RBI). Those peripherals make it unlikely for Lee to repeat last season’s 35 home runs and represent a decent amount of downside if he can’t maintain last season’s fly ball rate.


Lee is entering the final year of his contract, so he could produce one more really productive season due to that circumstance.


If he can remain healthy, I project Lee to hit around .300 with 25-30 home runs and 90-95 RBI in 2010. He does not run much anymore (just one stolen base last season), so he does not differentiate himself from other first baseman in that way any longer. Given the injury risk and potential for a significant decline in production with Lee, there are definitely more reliable options available on draft day.


3. Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants


Huff hit .241 with 15 HR and 85 RBI in 536 at-bats with the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers in 2009. He was particularly dismal with the Tigers, hitting just .189 with two home runs and 13 RBI in 40 games.


Huff signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the San Francisco Giants this offseason. He will take over as the Giants’ starting first baseman and likely cleanup hitter. With young Pablo Sandoval and newly acquired Mark DeRosa around him in the lineup, he could maximize his opportunities but the Giants are not an offensive juggernaut by any means.
 
Huff did hit 32 home runs and drive in 108 in 2008 with Baltimore, so he could bring some needed pop to the Giants’ offense. But at age 33, he does not present a lot of upside even if he is able to rebound from his 2009 struggles.


I project Huff to hit 15-20 home runs and drive in 75-80 while hitting around .270. That makes him a decent backup in NL-only leagues, but probably little else.

Brad Berreman is a staff writer with World Fantasy Games.

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