NFL Playoffs: Judging Fantasy Conditions for Jets

After taking yesterday to check out the fantasy conditions for the Colts players this weekend, it's time to flip the script and see what matching up against the Indy defense will mean for the prospects of the Jets' skill guys.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

vs. Quarterbacks

The Colts started the season much tougher on opposing passers than they finished. After none of the first eight was able to throw more than one touchdown pass against Indianapolis, six of the final eight enemy quarterbacks put up at least two.

That trend should be a bit unsettling, but there are several things within that stretch worth noting: First, only one of those six players attempted fewer than 40 passes (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Second, Fitzpatrick and David Garrard produced their three-touchdown outings within the final three weeks, when the Colts had already clinched. Even though Indy played nearly all of its starters in that one, it did so without arguably the two most significant defenders -- Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Finally, Mark Sanchez was one of just two (along with Joe Flacco) to not join that multi-touchdown group.

Sanchez didn't need to do much to help his team beat the Curtis Painter posse in Week 16, as he attempted the fewest passes of any starter against the Colts all year, but it's unlikely that his team will only call on him for 19 throws this time around.

Despite the weaker second half, facing the third-most pass attempts all season and allowing the third-most completions, the Colts still finished the season allowing the 13^th-fewest passing yards and tying for 10^th-fewest touchdown passes yielded.

For his part, Sanchez enjoyed just two multiple-touchdown games all season, compared with five in which he threw more than one interception.

Verdict: With Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre piloting the other three remaining teams, Mark Sanchez easily stands as the weakest fantasy play at his position this weekend.

vs. Running Backs

Although certainly far from dominating in run defense, Indianapolis hasn't been a pushover in that area this season. The Colts ranked middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed (17^th, 4.3) but tied for eighth-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. That came despite seeing the seventh-most carries and giving up the seventh-most yards. This marked the third time in the past five years that Indy has allowed 10 or fewer total rushing scores.

Of course, the Colts' greatest weapon against opposing rushing attacks is its own scoring offense. Pressured to try to match Manning and Co. (or, more often, play from behind), opponents often have to run the ball less than they might like. Even the Jets only handed 16 times in the first half of the previous meeting. After Manning left following his first drive of the third quarter, however, New York soon climbed on top and finished with 39 carries.

It's tough to glean a whole lot from that matchup, unfortunately, as Indy weakside linebacker Clint Session and strong safety Melvin Bullitt joined Freeney and Mathis on the sideline for that contest. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene combined for 200 yards rushing then, but it's hard to imagine conditions lining up for anywhere near that output this time.

What we have found out over the past couple of weeks, though, is that Greene is a pretty dynamic runner and the likely lead back for the Jets in this one. The rookie garnered 44 carries to Jones' 29 over the past two games and averaged 6 yards, more than double the 2.6 that Jones contributed.

We also know that the Jets aren't set up well to take advantage of Indy's generosity to receiving backs. The Colts allowed the sixth-most receptions to running backs in the league this year and tied for second-most receiving touchdowns yielded to the position (though two came in the final three weeks). The Jets, meanwhile, completed 18 fewer passes to backs than any other team for the year. More than half of their 28 completions to runners went to Leon Washington, whose season ended in Week 7. Jones caught 10 passes during the regular season, and Greene's 4-yard reception at San Diego on Sunday was his first as a pro.

Verdict: Between Shonn Greene's performance the past two weeks and the Jets' commitment to the run, the rookie has to be considered at least among the top three fantasy backs in any format for the weekend. It comes down to scoring format, I think, between him and Reggie Bush at No. 2. Jones, on the other hand, will only offer value if he finds the end zone. That makes him pretty risky.

vs. Wide Receivers

The high number of receptions by running backs against the Colts can be attributed to the same factor that led to this defense allowing the league's most receptions by wideouts. Even though Indy changed head coaches and defensive coordinators this year, it's defensive philosophy remains one of allowing short passes while keeping opponents out of the end zone.

That's why enemy receivers caught 224 passes, tallied the seventh-most yards and managed to tie for just 17^th-most touchdown catches. Even that number (12) got inflated a bit by four wideout scores over the final three weeks.

As I mentioned earlier, with Peyton Manning due to play the whole way this time around, the Jets will probably have to throw the ball significantly more than the 19 attempts they logged in the first meeting. Before Week 16, only two quarterbacks attempted fewer than 30 throws against the Colts, and Marc Bulger and David Garrard each put it up at least 26 times.

Verdict: Jerricho Cotchery leads the Jets with nine receptions in the post-season and led the team with 57 catches during the regular season despite missing time and being limited at others by injury. He's a solid option in point-per-reception setups such as ours and could always sneak into the end zone. Braylon Edwards has only once caught more than three passes with Cotchery in the lineup, including just two receptions in each playoff game so far. He's OK down the line but not particularly attractive.

vs. Tight ends

Despite allowing so many catches by wideouts and backs, the Colts gave up just the sixth-fewest receptions to tight ends all year and only two touchdowns. Just two opposing tight ends caught as many as five passes against Indy (neither more than that), and just two reached 50 yards.

The Colts didn't face the world's strongest slate of opposing tight ends but were able to limit Vernon Davis (three receptions, 20 yards, TD) and allowed Dustin Keller just 19 yards on his three catches in Week 16. Todd Heap, meanwhile, produced an unexciting four catches for 35 yards on Saturday night.

Verdict: It's possible that Dustin Keller gets more looks from his quarterback in this one, but he has been used so infrequently this season that the matchup easily places him fourth among tight ends this week.

vs. Defense

The Jets' top-flight pass defense can be encouraged by the fact that Peyton Manning put up his worst interception rate since 2002 this year, ranking 19^th among qualified quarterbacks in the regular season.

On the other hand, it's never nice to go up against the league's seventh-best scoring offense, and Manning also posted the fourth-best touchdown rate at quarterback this year. On top of that, he and his offensive line compiled the league's lowest sack rate. The Jets figure to have trouble getting pressure on him, just like every other defense does. For what it's worth, they didn't hit him at all before Manning left the game in Week 16.

The Colts' running game is far from strong, but the pass offense is plenty good enough to set up for short-yardage rushing scores. All in all, the Jets always bring potential on D, but a matchup with the Colts is never favorable. It doesn't help that Joseph Addai and Donald Brown combined for just two fumbles all year, losing only one.

Verdict: Despite less than ideal conditions, the chance that the NFC title game could turn into a shootout ultimately makes the Jets look like this weekend's No. 2 fantasy defense (unless you want to take a shot on one of those "classic" Favre multi-interception games).

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

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